RetroSimba

In participation with a week-long United Cardinal Bloggers project, our predictions for the 2011 National League Central Division:

1. Cardinals: This is a pick of the heart. So many things would have to go right for the Cardinals:

_ David Freese, Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman must stay injury-free.

_ Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia must be consistent winners who pitch deep into games.

_ Kyle McClellan must pitch effectively and without wearing down as a starter.

_ Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs must be reliable bullpen stalwarts.

The odds aren’t good.

Still, I don’t see any other team in the division that clearly is superior. So, given that Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday seem geared for monster seasons, it could be enough to give manager Tony La Russa and the flawed Cardinals an edge.

This could be a lot like 2006: Cardinals finish first with less than 88 wins, then get hot in the post-season.

2. Astros: An effective and underrated starting rotation makes Houston a surprise contender. Brett Myers (3.14), Wandy Rodriguez (3.60), J.A. Happ (3.75) and Nelson Figueroa (3.22) all had ERAs below 4.00 as Astros starters in 2010. Houston yielded the third-fewest runs (729) in the division last year.

Right fielder Hunter Pence, who turns 28 in April, is an unheralded star. He quietly has hit 25 homers in each of the last three seasons. In 2010, he had 91 RBI and 18 steals. Keep an eye on third baseman Chris Johnson, who hit .308 with 11 homers and 52 RBI in just 94 games in 2010.

3. Reds: The defending division champions will fall a couple of notches as left fielder Jonny Gomes (18 homers, 86 RBI last year), third baseman Scott Rolen (20 homers, 83 RBI), and pitcher Bronson Arroyo (17 wins) are unable to produce at the same levels they did in 2010.

4. Brewers: Among NL Central teams in 2010, only the Pirates gave up more runs than the Brewers allowed (804). Already, prized pitching acquisitions Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum have been set back by injuries. John Axford, entering his second full big-league season, hardly is an established closer.

5. Pirates: Young talent _ third baseman Pedro Alvarez, second baseman Neil Walker and outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata _ along with an upgrade (Chris Snyder) at catcher give Pittsburgh legitimate hope of escaping the cellar.

6. Cubs: The corner outfielders are fading, overpaid underperformers _ Alfonso Soriano, 35, in left and Kosuke Fukudome, 34 in April, in right _ and a solid starting rotation is hampered by a dreadful defense. The Cubs made 31 errors at third base, 30 errors at shortstop and 18 errors in the outfield in 2010. No other NL Central team had a combination that bad.