RetroSimba

In participation with the most recent United Cardinal Bloggers project, we asked the question, “Is Colby Rasmus a center fielder who can help lead the Cardinals to a World Series championship?”

The consensus is, yes, he can, following in the footsteps of center fielders such as Curt Flood, Willie McGee and Jim Edmonds. My colleagues supported their opinions with sharp analysis:

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Mike Metzger
Stan Musial’s Stance

Tough question.
 
Curt Flood finished 11th in MVP voting in 1964, 13th in 1967.  McGee was 3rd in ROY voting in 1982 and won the MVP 3 years later.  Edmonds finished 5th in the MV3 vote of 2004, and although he missed 2 months in 2006 due to lingering post-concussion symptoms, he was a big part of that playoff run.
 
Does Rasmus have the tools to be that caliber of player?  Absolutely.  Is he that caliber of player today?  Not yet, but he’s getting there.  Offensively he’s probably already there.  He improved quite a bit last season as compared to 2009 and we can reasonably expect he’ll remain a 25-30 HR, .340-.370 wOBA player for the next few years.

Defensively it’s tough to evaluate him based on 2 years at the major league level (superior 13.5 UZR/150 in 2009; below average -9.1 last season).  He’s probably not as good as his 2009 effort and nowhere near as bad as he was last season.  The 3 men referenced above were all outstanding defenders, which Rasmus certainly can become on a consistent basis.
 
So to answer the question, yes, I believe Rasmus is the kind of CF that can help lead the team to a World Championship.

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Aaron from El Maquino

Definitely. He can cover most of that ground out there and will be–at least–a consistent 20 hr guy.

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J.D. Norton
Bleed Cardinal Red With Me

Absolutely.  Colby is only going to get better.  People need to realize he’s still only 24 years old.  I fully expect Colby to be a top 3 CF in the next couple of years.

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Bill Ivie
www.i70baseball.com

Colby is an interesting case.

He has the ability to be a leadoff hitter with some pop, but does not want to be that type of player and underperforms when he is asked to do so.  He has a vision for his career and when the Cardinals ask him to do something that is in line with that vision, he is one of the best in the league.  When the team needs him to do something that would change the player that Colby wants to be known as, then he seems to act immaturely and not perform as well.

That all being said, the addition of Jim Edmonds will have a two-fold improvement on Colby.  Jimmy Ballgame is one of the best defenders in the game and takes a different approach than other outfielders.  His background shows that he can teach younger players how to improve and I expect him and Colby to be stuck together all Spring.  The competition that will be created, and a much lower level than most “competitions”, will spur Colby to play better.

Best case scenario, Colby turns the corner into the phenomenal player that we all know he is capable of.  Worst case, Edmonds takes some playing time and we will be talking about trade demands again in the early Summer.

I don’t think the question is “Is he capable” as much as it is “Is he willing”.

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Tom Knuppel
CardinalsGM

I believe Colby is not quite there yet but he will. The only rap I have on him at this time is his inability to hit the cut-off man and his sometimes weak or nonchalant throws to the infield. He must improve in that area to be in the same sentence with Flood, McGee and Edmonds, in my opinion.

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Bob Netherton
On the Outside Corner
Throatwarbler’s Blog

A great question, Mark.  Lots to think about.

When you put “is” together with “lead” and then recall the names Flood, McGee and Edmonds, the answer is no. Can he be that kind of center fielder? Without question. But will he – not for a while, and not without a significant change to the way he plays the game.

Curt Flood was one of the coolest baseball players I’ve seen wear the Cardinal uniform. Steady as a rock, but his eyes were always focused like a laser beam. Edmonds and McGee were quite the opposite – total disruptors .  McGee beat you every way possible: the glove, with his feet and finally his bat.  He was a terror wherever he was placed in the batting order.  The “awww shucks, it was no big deal” persona just made him even more irritating to the opposition.  Edmonds was also an instigator, but more of the “hey guys, look at what I just did – now, let’s go out and get them”.  All three produced consistently, and made the players around them better.

Two things will keep Rasmus from joining this elite group of center fielders.  Tony La Russa may be the wrong kind of manager for a kid like Rasmus.  The best spot for him in the batting order is at the top, first or second, and leave him there.  Unless your name is Pujols or Holliday, you aren’t staying anywhere in the batting order. Maybe if Lance Berkman stays healthy and hits in the fifth spot, Rasmus can adjust to the top of the order and become the offensive force we think he can be. 
But part of that will have to be the running game, and that’s not in La Russa’s bag-of-tricks.

The biggest obstacle for Rasmus is his entitled attitude.  The other three players all had something to prove. Flood dealt with some really tough racial issues, McGee wasn’t supposed to be in the big leagues, and Jimmy Ballgame had to prove he was the best, on a daily basis.  All three played like this might be their last game, and they wanted it to be special.  I don’t see that in Rasmus – not even close.

Oh, and before somebody plays the “Rasmus is still young” card, Curt Flood was already a Gold Glove winner and .300 hitter at a younger age. Both Vince Coleman and Willie McGee went to a World Series before their 24th birthday.

Right now, Colby Rasmus is more Alex Johnson than Flood, McGee or Edmonds, and I hope that changes.  Quickly.

Awesome question – thanks Mark!

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Dennis Lawson
Pitchers Hit Eighth

Great question, and I really like the way you worded it, Mark. 

I do think Colby has enough raw talent to lead the team to a World Series championship, even if he doesn’t have his head completely screwed on straight.  I think he’ll start to put things together this year, but he’ll by no means be the complete player that he’ll be in 2-3 years.  He’s still good enough to be a top 5 centerfielder in the NL, and he doesn’t have to be his ideal self to push this team over the top. 

A while back I compared him to the Diamondbacks’ Justin Upton in terms of ability.  I think he’s only shown us about 70% of what he can do.  If he gets to 80-85% this year, he’ll start earning the respect, praise, and eventually the big contract that he seems to be wanting.  Along the way, he could just propel the Cardinals through the playoffs with a monster year.  Keep in mind that he put up .276/.361/.498/.859 with 23 hr and 66 rbi in only 534 PAs, and a lot of people were still disappointed.  The expectations are high, and the force is strong with this one.

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Andy Beard
Gas House Graphs

Unquestionably. Colby Rasmus can contribute towards a World Series victory.

Check the league leader boards at FanGraphs and you’ll find that Colby was the fourth most productive center-fielder offensively in 2010 (.366 wOBA – From FanGraphs’ dictionary: a stat that, “combines all of the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value”). Only Josh Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez were better. Would you consider them dynamic, impact players? Take this another step further and restrict eligibility to those that played at least 50% of their games in CF, and Colby was the most productive according to his 132 OPS+ (found at Baseball-Reference). If he were able to cut down on his strikeouts, while maintaining advanced patience at the plate (11.8 BB% in 2010), he could take another step forward.

The advanced fielding metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference reveal two completely different defenders in 2009 and 2010. While they suggested an underrated, if not dynamic, fielder in 2009, Colby’s defense was a liability in 2010. There’s a school of thought that his positioning was off for much of last season, but improved later in the year. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt considering his scouting reports were always positive and expect him to prove himself as an average defender at least.

The need for players like Colby on this team (young, cost-controlled) cannot be overstated if Saint Louis wants to have a realistic chance to stay competitive within the division while extending Pujols’ career under the Arch.

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Daniel Shoptaw
C70 At The Bat

Really not much to say after the great comments already put out there.  My two cents is that I don’t think Colby will be one that will lead a team as much as, like Andy phrased it, he will contribute to a World Series victory.

I don’t get the impression that you could make Colby the best talent on the team and he’d take a team to the title.  I think he’s a great complementary piece on a solid team, such as the one that the Cards have now, but if it’s Colby and a few above-average players, then that team, in my opinion, wouldn’t go that far.

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Dustin McClure
Welcome To Baseball Heaven

There’s already been some great insight. I’m hoping I can add a little something to the discussion.
 
Last year was kind of an up and down year for Colby. When things were good they were really good. When they were bad it turned into trade rumors, feuds with TLR, etc. There were times at the plate when his at bats were a thing of beauty (working the count, drawing walks, and driving the ball). Other times he looked lost at the plate trying to jerk everything which I believe was the main culprit in his elevated strikeout total from the prior season.
 
As Mike mentioned it’s a little early to draw any conclusions defensively. He’s in pretty elite company when grouped in comparison with Flood, McGee and Edmonds. He’s got the tools and ability to become a top tier defender for sure.
 
To answer Mark’s question it’s definitely a yes! Colby will be a significant contributor in bringing another World Series title to St. Louis in the very near future.

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Christine Coleman
Aaron Miles’ Fastball

Definitely a lot of interesting points made by everyone so far – surprising ones as well, and not necessarily what I expected as responses when I first read the question. And, given the fact I’ve been reading everything very carefully these days (to try to figure out what’s fact and what’s speculation when it comes to anything written about Albert and his contract – with, of course, speculation being the case 98 percent of the time), I found the wording of “can help lead” in Mark’s question intriguing. Yes, of course he can help. *Will* Colby help lead the Cardinals to a World Series championship? That depends. And it depends the most, in my opinion, on how much he’s given the chance to play and continue to learn/improve. We’ve seen the raw talent and potential that he has. Whether he’s given the opportunity to hone those talents and abilities – that’s up to the manager. It’s also going to depend on the team around him, because baseball is obviously a team sport. One or two great players – or even five All-Stars – don’t necessarily make a World Series or even playoff team. But my thought is that yes, Colby could easily be a valuable contributor to a championship team based on the abilities he’s shown during his time with the Cardinals.